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Esta página no está disponible en español. Puerto Rico: International Relations And Defence, Political Forces, Outlook
Puerto Rico: International Relations And Defence Economist Intelligence Unit - ViewsWire November 24, 2003 COUNTRY BACKGROUND FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT US takes care of international relations and defence Puerto Rico’s autonomy does not extend to international relations and defence, which are under US government authority. There are several major US military bases on the island of Puerto Rico and outlying island territories, although one of the larger ones, the Roosevelt Roads Navy Base in Ceiba, on the island’s south-eastern tip, was closed down in the summer of 2003. While it has no autonomy over international relations, the island has been allowed some latitude in contacts with its neighbours, especially in the Caribbean. There have been agreements with the Dominican Republic regulating trade in certain tropical foodstuffs, and contacts have been established with the Caribbean Community (Caricom). The Popular Democratic Part (PPD) in particular has tried to take advantage of whatever latitude is allowed by the US government in such matters, sometimes provoking a restraining reaction from Washington. The latest such reaction came in August 2003, as the Calderón Administration sought an invitation to the Cumbre Iberoamericna to be held in Bolivia. Colin Powell, the US secretary of state, sent a message to US embassies throughout Latin America reminding them that any invitation to Puerto Rico to participate in a meeting of Latin American political leaders had to be cleared through the US State Department. In contrast to the PPD, the New Progressive Party (PNP) has been reluctant to project Puerto Rico as an autonomous political presence on the world stage, as this would run counter to their statehood aspiration. SOURCE: Country Profile Puerto Rico: Political forces Economist Intelligence Unit - ViewsWire November 24, 2003 COUNTRY BACKGROUND FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT A broadly two-party system The Popular Democratic Party (PPD) and the New Progressive Party (PNP) are the two main parties. Their policies are largely shaped by their views on the island’s political status. The pro-commonwealth PPD strongly favours US tax incentives for investment by US corporations in Puerto Rico, believing that the risk of losing these weakens the case for statehood. The pro-statehood PNP plays down their significance to the local economy. Other policy differences between the two parties can be similarly traced to the status question. By contrast, both favour privatisation and deregulation, and have proposed broadly similar health, education and labour reforms. The ideological opposition to the PNP and the PPD is to be found in the pro-independence and labour movements and in some segments of the Catholic Church. These groups often coalesce into loose alliances aimed at enforcing a social and environmental agenda in opposition to the government’s liberal programme. The only pro-independence party formally represented in the island’s legislature is the left-leaning Partido Independentista Puertorriqueño (PIP). It has garnered less than 5% of the vote in all recent elections, but is regarded as a political force with a loyal constituency and has thus been included in recent congressional consultations on a possible status plebiscite. The party’s electoral performance improved in the elections of November 2000 thanks to the militant stance of its leadership, especially its gubernatorial candidate, Rubén Berríos, in the dispute with the US Navy over military exercises on the island municipality of Vieques. The navy controlled nearly two-thirds of the surface area of Vieques until its cessation of activities in May 2003. Mr Berríos received 5.1% of the vote in the race for governor. Election results, Nov 2000
Source: State Elections Commission Puerto Rico: Country Outlook Economist Intelligence Unit - ViewsWire February 11, 2004 COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OVERVIEW: The political scene will be dominated by the campaign for the general elections of November 2004, which coincide with those in the US. The economy is picking up and the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts GNP growth of 2.8% in fiscal year 2003/04 (July-June). Government spending on infrastructure will support the economy but manufacturing will face the uncertainty created by the threat of an end to US tax breaks. A stalling of the recovery in the US economy is the main risk to the outlook for Puerto Rico. DOMESTIC POLITICS: The political scene will be dominated by the campaign for the general elections of November 2004, which coincide with those in the US. Anibal Acevedo Vila (currently resident commissioner) will run for governor for the pro-commonwealth Partido Popular Democratico (PPD). He will face the former governor, Pedro Rossello, of the opposition Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP), which favours statehood. The main issues in the campaign will be the economy, corruption and crime. Even with a pick-up in the economy in fiscal year 2003/04 (July-June), the administration of Sila Maria Calderon will end its term with the average annual growth rate having averaged under 2% per year, which should favour the PNP in the 2004 polls. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The PPD’s lack of closeness with either the Democrats or the ruling Republicans will contribute to Puerto Rico’s difficulty in winning policy concessions from the US over the forecast period. Following the US navy’s departure from the Vieques training area in May 2003, Puerto Rico’s diplomatic contacts with the US will again become focused on economic relations. At a time when the US Congress is expressing concern about the widening fiscal deficit, lobbying for concessions for Puerto Rico, in particular a proposed amendment to Section 956 of the US Tax Code, may not receive a sympathetic hearing. POLICY TRENDS: A programme of investment in infrastructure and public works designed to stimulate the economy is under way. The government plans about US$6bn in investments in infrastructure and public works to be realised over a four-year period. These include a transshipment port at Ponce, and a convention centre in the capital, San Juan. Section 936 of the US Tax Code, which provides US tax incentives for manufacturing industries in Puerto Rico, is scheduled to expire at the end of 2004. If–as seems likely–the proposed amendment to section 956 does not prosper, whichever of the two main political parties wins the 2004 elections will face the task of defining a new industrial development policy. ECONOMIC GROWTH: Real GNP growth in fiscal year 2002/03, which ended on June 30th, is estimated at 1.6%. The outlook for the 2003/04 fiscal year is brighter, assuming that the US recovery is sustained. The increase in public investment will have a multiplier effect, boosting employment, income and retail sales. The housing sector will continue to benefit from very low interest rates and a fast pace of new household formation. Industrial and commercial construction will not pick up strongly until after the recovery has fully consolidated, and not before fiscal year 2004/05. Tourism is doing well and could strengthen further on the back of the launch of the island’s first all-inclusive resort. Uncertainty over the tax regime will constrain manufacturing output and investment. Within manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and professional and scientific instruments will be the best performers. Labour-intensive industries such as clothing and textiles will continue to struggle. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts GNP growth of 2.8% in 2003/04, strengthening to 3% in 2004/05, provided that the US economic recovery is sustained. EXCHANGE RATES: The currency is the US dollar. EXTERNAL SECTOR: Foreign trade data for the period January-August show a 15.2% rise in export earnings to US$36.6bn and a 15.9% rise in the import bill to US$20.5bn. SOURCE: Country outlook
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