Puerto Rico Herald: Recent Poll Shows That Bush – Kerry Presidential Race Is In A Virtual "Dead Heat" And That Advocacy Of Puerto Rico Statehood "Wouldn’t Make A Difference" To A Majority Of Voters

The telephone survey was conducted over the July 9-12 time period by Opinion Dynamics of Cambridge, Massachusetts. 97% of respondents had voted in the 2000 presidential election.

Early in the interview, respondents were separately given the names of four prominent U.S. political figures and asked to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. Named were incumbent President George W. Bush, the two major candidates campaigning to unseat him -- John Kerry and Ralph Nader -- and former President, Bill Clinton.

Interestingly, the most favorable rating went to former President Bill Clinton at 49%, with George W. Bush second at 47%. John Kerry’s favorable ratings were 3 points behind Bush at 44%, while Ralph Nader’s were at a low 24% level of approval. At 37%, fewer respondents were unfavorable to Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry than to the other three, whose unfavorable ratings were, on average, 10 points higher.

RATINGS BY 900 RANDOMLY SELECTED U.S. VOTERS

Individual Rated	Favorable	Unfavorable	Can’t say	Never heard
George W. Bush	47%	45%	8%	--
John Kerry	44%	37%	18%	1%
Ralph Nader	24%	46%	24%	7%
Bill Clinton	49%	44%	7%	--

Two identical questions were posed, asking respondents to make a presidential choice among names provided, assuming that the election was held on the day of the interview. In the first question, Independent Party candidate Ralph Nader’s name was included but not in the second. Democratic candidate John Kerry led George W. Bush and Nader in both cases, but his lead over Bush increased when Nader was eliminated from the race. All of Nader’s support was given to Kerry, while Bush’s numbers remained the same.

FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE AMONG THESE CHOICES?

WITH RALPH NADER INCLUDED

Republican George W. Bush	41%
Democrat John Kerry	42%
Independent Ralph Nader	2%
Not sure/Other ---------	14%
Would not vote ---------	1%

WITH RALPH NADER EXCLUDED

Republican George W. Bush	41%
Democrat John Kerry	45%
Not sure/Other	13%
Would not vote	1%

Towards the end of the poll, participants were asked if positions taken by either George W. Bush or John Kerry in support of future Puerto Rico statehood would have a bearing on the respondent’s preference for either. The results tracked almost identically between the two candidates.

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THE CANDIDATE SAID HE FAVORED STATEHOOD FOR PUERTO RICO?

	John Kerry	George Bush
Much more likely to vote for him	11%	9%
Somewhat more likely to vote for him	8%	6%
Somewhat less likely to vote for him	5%	7%
Much less likely to vote for him	12%	13%
Not sure	6%	7%
Wouldn't make a difference	57%	59%

Respondents were told of John Kerry’s position on a self-determination process enabling Puerto Ricans to choose a status permitted by the U.S. constitution among permanent non-territorial and non-colonial options of statehood, independence or free association. They were then asked if this position would make them more or less likely to vote for him.

KNOWING JOHN KERRY’S POSITION ON PUERTO RICO’S POLITICAL STATUS, ARE YOU NOW MORE OR LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR HIM?

Much more likely to vote for him	9%
Somewhat more likely to vote for him	9%
Somewhat less likely to vote for him	4%
Much less likely to vote for him	13%
Not sure	9%
Wouldn't make a difference	56%