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Esta página no está disponible en español. Voters Divided On Iraq, Bush…Parties Target Hispanics In 4 Battleground States…Latino Identification Throws Knots Into Campaigns
Voters Divided On Iraq, Bush Bonnie Rochman July 9, 2004 WAKE FOREST -- On a drizzly day last week, this town's slip of a downtown was quiet and nearly still. Many stores were dark. But in a few corners, at a lunch table here and a cramped cubicle there, people wrestled with big issues. Once they began, it was hard for them to stop. There was war to ponder, and the presidency, and it was clear they took them both seriously. A few were dogmatic; most were confused. Some support the fighting in Iraq, and others don't. Some champion President Bush; some can't stand him. The first person interviewed backed the war and Bush. Each subsequent conversation revealed a person slightly more conflicted. The last person interviewed opposed the war and the president. The state is still Republican-friendly, but Bush, a Republican, is nowhere near as popular as he was when he won North Carolina four years ago, according to a recent statewide poll. The poll showed 47 percent of likely voters choosing Bush, compared with 42 percent voting for Sen. John Kerry, a Democrat. With Kerry's selection this week of U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate, Bush's lead could become more precarious. Four years ago, 56 percent of North Carolina voters chose Bush, and 43 percent voted for Democrat Al Gore. Wake Forest is a conservative town with some progressive leanings, a community where meticulously restored Victorian mansions, a Baptist seminary and a brand-new purveyor of hydroponic and organic gardening supplies coexist. At Shorty's, a hot dog joint with a bustling lunch counter, Ramon Rodriguez finished wolfing down two hot dogs with chili, onions, mayonnaise, mustard and ketchup. Then he talked about Iraq. "I love it, I love it," said Rodriguez, 42, a Garner security systems technician for the Wake County school system. He was in Wake Forest hooking up a security system at an elementary school. "It's about time," he said. "We keep getting hit, and someone had enough courage to go out there and get it done." He voted for Bush in 2000, and the president's leadership in the war against Iraq has strengthened Rodriguez's convictions. Rodriguez was born in Puerto Rico and followed a family tradition of military service, skipping his high school graduation ceremony to join his unit in South Carolina. Military actions are rarely accomplished quickly and cleanly, he said, and Iraq is no different. "Nothing goes perfect," he said. "Say you're making biscuits and gravy. You might burn the biscuits, or you might burn the gravy." He ticked off assaults on the United States: the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, the USS Cole attack, Sept. 11. "We're taking it to them," he said. "That way, I can eat my hot dog without looking over my shoulder." A few storefronts away, at B&W Hardware Co., a cluster of red Radio Flyer wagons gleamed in the window. Metallic American flags, about a foot high, sparkled near the register. A television blared, and a man and a boy sat in folding chairs, watching "2004 Election Issues" scroll across the screen. In a cluttered back office, Gale Parker, a retired schoolteacher and part-time clerk, hoisted his long legs onto a countertop. "The first thing I want to tell you is, nobody likes war," said Parker, 57, a Wake Forest resident for 35 years. "But I can't recall some time in history when pacifism worked." Parker is not sure the war was necessary, but he said he was glad to see Saddam Hussein ousted and figures Iraqis deserve a chance to flourish as a society. He said he would like to see democracy take root there, though he is not sure the United States can make it happen. Bush has Parker's vote again in November, partly because as a Vietnam veteran, Parker bristles at Kerry's Vietnam-era anti-war rhetoric, and partly because he thinks Democrats are more apt to appease Islamic fundamentalists than are Republicans. "I look at pictures of bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, and I say, 'Who would they vote for?' And I figure I'll vote for the opposite." Yet Parker, a former football coach, worries that the administration has no exit strategy. "You do everything you can to get to know your enemy first," he said, "but once the game starts, there are fumbles and interceptions. We're in the fourth quarter, and we've fumbled twice." Leslie Kendall of Wilson had just finished up lunch with colleagues at the Olde English Tea Room across the street, where crustless sandwiches are served on dainty plates. She did not want the war and is ready for the United States to leave Iraq. But she said she thinks it would be a mistake to pull out now, with everything so unstable. "How's that for conflicted?" she said. Kendall, 52, works at an early intervention program for deaf children. A registered Democrat, she cast her first vote for a Republican president in 2000. She saw Bush as a moral antidote to philandering Bill Clinton. She plans to support him again because she doesn't like what she sees as "vindictiveness" in the Democratic Party. Even though she initially opposed the war, she is now a reluctant supporter. "I'm a patriot," she said, adding she feels it is anti-American to not support the president once he has made a decision. Scott Bucher took a seat among the sacks of organic plant food at Water's Edge, his all-natural gardening supply store down the street. Bucher, 40, is a registered Independent who voted for Gore. He plans to vote for Kerry, not so much because he likes Kerry but because he loves John Edwards. He also feels alienated by Bush, whom he sees as favoring big corporations and wealthy taxpayers. He said he thinks the war's rationale turned out to be a farce when no weapons of mass destruction were unearthed. "Bush preyed on the fears of the nation," he said. "I didn't like that." But now we're obligated to stay out of humanitarian concern for the Iraqi people. "We can't just go over and bomb the country and then leave," he said. "Then who's the terrorist?" Gray McKay sat behind the counter of The Clothes Horse, her children's boutique, and compared what she considers Bush's practically unilateral decision to declare war to her personal life. "My mother has Alzheimer's," she said. "Am I going to put her in a nursing home without the agreement of my two sisters? It's better if we all agree." McKay voted for Gore and supports Kerry. Had Kerry been president, maybe he too would have declared war. But surely, she said, he would have proceeded in a more measured way. McKay is disappointed that peace still seems so elusive. But maybe good will prevail. If the insurgency can be suppressed, maybe the war will be worth it. If Iraq can find peace, maybe the lives lost will have value. "But since none of those lives are very close to me," she said, "it's easy to say that." Parties Target Hispanics In 4 Battleground States By Martin Kasindorf, USA TODAY July 20, 2004 ALBUQUERQUE – When presidential campaign advisers say that Hispanic voters this year are playing their most important role ever, A.J. Montoya is the kind of voter they have in mind. Montoya, 30, sells cable-TV service from a kiosk in the Coronado Mall here. He is Hispanic in an up-for-grabs Southwestern state with a 42% Hispanic population. He's critical of President Bush for "overpowering and bullish" actions in Iraq. But he calls Democrat John Kerry "a little too indecisive, a little bit iffy for me." For months, the Bush campaign has been trying to win over skeptics like Montoya with commercials in Spanish on the local affiliate of the Univision TV network. Montoya says the tactic is "a little bit offensive, because ... he's not Hispanic. I think he's doing it just like other politicians do, just to get votes." A few days after Montoya said this, Kerry began running his own Spanish-language ads in New Mexico. From all appearances, both parties are making a nationwide pitch for the 7 million Hispanic-Americans who are expected to vote on Nov. 2. But the impression that this is the "Year of the Hispanic" – a flattering cliché that politicians recycle every four years – is misleading. Though Hispanics are getting recognized, the attention is limited. The contestants are really targeting no more than 550,000 undecided or softly committed voters in four swing states with large Hispanic populations: New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. These battlegrounds, where 1.4 million Hispanics are expected to cast ballots, hold 47 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. "A slight shift among Hispanic voters in these states can tip the Electoral College," Republican Party Chairman Ed Gillespie says. This handful of strategic states is getting most of the specialized ads in Spanish, on which the campaigns and allied groups are expected to spend up to $17 million. And these states are targeted for most of the doorbell-ringing to get out the vote in Hispanic communities on Nov. 2. Democrats plan to bus Spanish-speaking Californians to buttonhole compadres in Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. On barrio streets, bilingual Republicans will be on the same mission. On the stump, Bush and Kerry venture phrases in clumsy Spanish. In May, Bush clamped new restrictions on Americans' travel to Cuba after a poll showed that Cuban-Americans in Florida thought he hadn't been tough enough on Fidel Castro. Kerry's camp hinted that he could choose a Hispanic running mate, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, though Richardson took himself out of the running before Kerry chose John Edwards. What about Hispanic voters outside the four main battlegrounds? There are drives to get them registered, but the stark fact is that they are less sought-after because their votes won't matter nearly as much. Nearly 60% of U.S. Hispanics live in California, New York and Texas. The first two states are considered solidly for Kerry, and Texas is the home state of the president. "The underlying structural problem of the Latino vote is that so much of it is concentrated in states that aren't in play," says Roberto Suro, director of the Washington, D.C.-based Pew Hispanic Center. As strategists zero in on the few places where Hispanics could make the difference, they are discovering another truth about this fast-growing but little-understood segment of the electorate: There is no monolithic "Hispanic vote." In fact, few categories of voters are as complex. No ethnic solidarity Nearly 40 million U.S. residents, 14% of the population, trace their ancestry to Mexico, Central and South America, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic or Spain. In 2003, the Census Bureau announced that Hispanics had overtaken African-Americans to become the nation's largest minority. The current Census estimate of 16.1 million adult Hispanic citizens represents a 56% increase in 10 years. In 1980, 2.5 million Hispanics voted for president, 2.4% of the total U.S. vote. In 2000, nearly 6 million Hispanics voted, a 136% rise in 20 years to 5.6% of the electorate. This year, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) projects a turnout of 7 million Hispanics. But don't bother talking ethnic solidarity to Debbie Valdez, 38. Unemployed in Santa Fe, she speaks no Spanish. A Republican from a long-established local Hispanic family, she says she'll vote for Bush because Democrats are too pro-immigration. "Mexicans are taking over," she says. "You can't even get a job at Wal-Mart." Hispanics are a long way from pursuing "a common political agenda," Suro says. Surveys show that Hispanics' views on economic and social issues are fragmented by region, national background, age and, above all, by whether voters are U.S.- or foreign-born. The 2004 campaigns have found a shortcut through the complexity: They focus their advertising on the newcomers – the naturalized immigrants whose party loyalties haven't jelled. Hispanics with long U.S. connections lean heavily Democratic. But the voting behavior of first-generation Hispanic-Americans is "much more volatile and unpredictable" than that of the native-born, says Sergio Bendixen, a Miami-based Democratic pollster. "The U.S.-born Latino vote is as predictable as the African-American vote – 60% to 65% Democratic in almost every election," he says. "In Florida, 75% of the naturalized vote went for Al Gore in 2000, but then 60% of them went for (Republican Gov.) Jeb Bush in 2002. They're very much influenced by campaigns and advertising." Since March 4, the Bush campaign has been using Spanish-language TV to mine the immigrant vote, which is expected to make up 25% of Hispanic ranks on Nov. 2. "We do better in households where Spanish is the principal language," Gillespie says. Republican ads in Florida and the Southwest are designed to pound home a message to striving immigrants, wherever they're from. It is that Bush is "a strong leader who promotes family values and can help people attain the American Dream," says Lionel Sosa, the Bush campaign's expert on crafting themes in Spanish. Fledgling Hispanic voters are willing to hear out Republicans because "they were not brought up in the tradition of Cesar Chavez and the farm labor movement, and they don't know about the legacy of John F. Kennedy," says Maria Cardona, senior vice president of the New Democrat Network. To counter GOP messages, Cardona's independent group plans to spend $5 million on Bush-bashing ads in Spanish in the four Hispanic battlegrounds. Kerry late getting started Bush's ad buyers got a big head start on Kerry, who recently was criticized by some Hispanic activists for tardiness – even though there are still nearly four months to Election Day. Kerry ran primary-season ads in Spanish for Feb. 3 voting in Arizona and New Mexico, but his first such ad for the general election didn't air until Memorial Day weekend. The New Democrat Network's first $1.3 million in advertising kept a Democratic presence in Hispanic homes before Kerry's latest ad started. One Kerry commercial emphasizes his Vietnam War medals, and it lauds World War II soldiers "with names such as Garcia, Chavez and Ortiz." Kerry has aired it in Florida, the Southwest and Ohio. Last week, Kerry announced that he will spend $1 million in 10 states – he added Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – on a second Spanish-language spot. It has images of the candidate playing soccer with his daughters and in his military uniform. "We introduce you to a man of faith," a narrator says. "A man of family. A man of honor. A man for our community." Bush countered in the four main Hispanic battlegrounds with a Spanish ad criticizing Kerry for missing Senate votes and for voting against a bill to require parental notification for teenagers seeking abortions. "Viva Bush-Cheney" volunteer teams are registering voters in 30 states, gaining another advantage on Kerry. His "Unidos con Kerry" voter registration drive has barely begun. Kerry's campaign "seems ponderous, missing some opportunities," says Antonio Gonzalez, president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project. Responding to gibes that there are few Spanish names in top campaign posts, Kerry "has hired some people, not big guns but at least some Hispanic faces in there," Gonzalez says. "But the pace is very slow." Former Housing secretary Henry Cisneros, former California State Assembly speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and National Council of La Raza leader Jose Villareal are three of the Kerry campaign's 11 co-chairs. It's a big title, but co-chairs play essentially advisory roles. His top Hispanic staffer is Paul Rivera. He directs outreach to ethnic groups, environmentalists and women, and runs regional and state political operations. Sosa is on a somewhat higher level in the Bush campaign. He's on the media team that decides all advertising strategy, not just appeals to Hispanics. Other Hispanics have lesser responsibilities for Bush. For politicians, the stepped-up competition for Hispanic votes has required a big change in thinking. Taken for granted by Democrats, the Hispanic electorate was patronized for decades as the "sleeping giant" of American politics. Hispanics voted in low proportions to their numbers. They still do. Nearly half of voting-age Hispanics aren't citizens. And voting isn't a priority for many immigrant citizens struggling for a living. Rove's shrewd move Credit Karl Rove, Bush's Texas-trained senior political adviser, for sharpening the focus on Hispanics. Just days before Election Day in 2000, Bush roused Miami's Cuban-American community with Spanish-language commercials that clearly contributed to his 537-vote victory in Florida. This year, Republicans are back with a push for Mexican-Americans, Puerto Ricans and other traditionally Democratic constituencies. The GOP is working to raise Bush's share of the Hispanic vote from his 2000 showing of 35% – no advance from President Reagan's share in the 1980s – to 40%. Democrats are playing defense. Looking beyond 2004, the parties realize that a dim future is in store for any party that ignores the rising Hispanic clout. Convinced that Hispanics are less roped to the Democratic Party than African-Americans, Republicans have long-term plans to reach parity with Democrats in Hispanic hearts in states beyond the current four battlegrounds. That could realign the nation's political map, making even heavily Democratic and Hispanic California, the most populous state, more competitive in future elections. Some measures of Hispanics' new empowerment: • Democrats are making New Mexico's Bill Richardson, 56, son of an Anglo father and a Mexican mother, visible as chairman of the convention in Boston this month. • The $17 million for Spanish-language commercials will set a record. In 2000, the Bush and Gore forces spent $3.3 million on such ads (Republicans outspent Democrats 2-1). That was a small fraction of the campaigns' $147 million TV budgets. This year, the increased spending will benefit Univision and Telemundo, networks that reach 3.5 million voters. • More than a dozen partisan and non-partisan groups have launched drives to register 1 million new Hispanic voters and shepherd them to polling places. Polls show that the longer Latino families are in the USA, the more Democratic they vote. Still, Republicans aren't writing off any generation. They say Hispanics are a natural constituency for them: socially conservative, patriotic, entrepreneurial and receptive to simpatico GOP candidates. One reassurance for Democrats: While most Hispanics are conservative on social issues such as abortion, polls show they vote on the basis of jobs and schools, not on moral views. In a 2002 Pew Hispanic Center survey, 58% said education was paramount in determining their vote, followed by the economy at 39% and health care at 23%. "I don't think people are up in arms about gay marriage as much as they are about the fact that their children aren't graduating from high school," says Arturo Vargas of the NALEO Educational Fund. Democrats are uneasy about pitting the reserved Kerry against the breezy Bush. Many Hispanics like Bush's style. "Bush is popular," Richardson says. "He speaks a little of the language. In Texas, he brought Hispanics into government. So the threat is President Bush, not the Republican Party." What Kerry has going for him is his background as a decorated Vietnam veteran. "There is admiration for the fact the man was in combat," says Harry Pachon, director of the Tomás Rivera Policy Center at the University of Southern California. "Kerry's Catholic. That's also a positive factor." As Kerry begins to pick up the pace with Hispanics, Hispanic Democrats are doing less hand-wringing. "I think they get it," says Rep. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. "But change is never easy. And to make these types of investments in the Hispanic community is a significant change. The community has always been part of the base. But this is a base in transition, and it needs tending to." Latino Identification Throws Knots Into Campaigns By Sandra Hernandez Staff Writer July 23, 2004 The Bradenton Herald When Florida state officials scrapped a statewide database of suspected felons because it included few Hispanics, it raised a thorny issue: how do you identify Latinos? The question was prompted when only 61 Hispanic names appeared on a list of 48,000 suspected felons to be purged from voter rolls. By comparison, the names of 22,000 blacks appeared on the list. The controversy underscores the complex nature of Hispanic identity -- an issue that could prove troublesome for both Republicans and Democrats as they struggle to identify and woo Latino voters in key states such as Florida. Here, a Cuban American in Little Havana is as likely to describe himself as white, as a Mexican laborer in Homestead is to prefer the term Latino, while a Guatemalan in Lake Worth identifies as indigenous. "Latino identity is like a website that is still under construction," said Max Castro, a Miami-based political analyst. "It's an emerging identity." The result is political parties are pushing to develop varied and sophisticated messages. "There is clearly no one size fits all approach to these voters," said Roberto Suro, director of the Washington D.C. based Pew Hispanic Center. "This is particularly the case in Florida where you have native born and immigrants and people who trace their origin to a variety of countries." Hispanic self-identity has become a prickly topic in recent years. The 2000 U.S. Census revealed that for the first time many Hispanics didn't want to use traditional racial and ethnic categories to describe themselves. Nearly 15 million chose to identify themselves as "some other race." In Florida, state agencies don't have a uniform way of tracking Hispanics. The flawed suspected felon database resulted because one agency offers only black or white as a racial category, while another agency includes Hispanic. Scrapping the list is a dramatic example of the high political stakes attached to Hispanic identity. The shortage of Hispanic names on the suspected felon list drew criticism from Democrats, who charged the arrangement was intended to benefit President Bush. Republicans denied the allegation, saying it was a simple oversight. Florida's Hispanics, especially Cuban Americans, traditionally vote for Republican candidates while African Americans traditionally vote for Democrats. Campaign strategists say the way Latinos identify with race or ethnicity will determine how political parties shape their message in the hopes of getting their vote. "In Miami-Dade you can talk about immigration and Cuba because you still have Cuban Americans as the largest voting bloc," says Alberto Lorenzo, a South Florida political strategist. "But in Broward and in the central part of the state you have a lot of new groups that don't identify with either party. There are other issues that matter to them. So the Venezuelans may want to hear about foreign policy." Analysts say the two parties are tailoring their messages to deal with this new diversity, often taking specific positions aimed at attracting key Latino voting blocs. Bush's recent tightening of travel restrictions to Cuba is an example of this new approach, according to experts such as Rodolfo de la Garza, a political science professor at Columbia University and one of the first academics to track Hispanic identity. "He came up with these new policies because he believed moderate Cubans have nowhere else to go and will remain Republican while also appealing to the more conservative ones," he said. Likewise, Democrats are focusing on issues such as resolving Puerto Rico's status as a state or commonwealth. Puerto Ricans traditionally vote for Democrats. The question of Hispanic identity is so prevalent that even some Latino groups are wrestling with the right language to use. "When we put together an event to register people we don't say Latino because no one will show up. We have to say it's a Dominican or Puerto Rican event," says Alvaro Fernandez, who runs the Florida office of Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, a nonprofit group that works to increase Latino voter participation. The group has registered more than 5,000 new voters, most of them Latinos.
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