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Esta página no está disponible en español. Buenos Días, Swing Voter…Democrats Enjoy Image Boost Among Hispanics
Buenos Días, Swing Voter EDITORIAL September 15, 2004 Unlike African-Americans - who as a constituency are overwhelmingly Democratic - Latinos are a little more mysterious with their intentions at the polls. In a year in which politicians expect to live or die by the swing vote, Hispanic voters are like catnip to the presidential candidates. Tilt a few of the expected seven million Latino ballots this way or that in a few battleground states, and the election can be won, or so the strategists believe. That's why Latinos in Florida, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado are being saturated by political ads on radio, television and in print, which are being bought like never before in Spanish. With less than two months in the race remaining, spending on Spanish-language ads by the campaigns and political groups has already topped the total in 2000 - more than $4 million so far, with Democrats outspending Republicans three to one, according to Adam Segal of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University. Since most Hispanic Americans speak English, the ads seem most likely to reach immigrants who prefer Spanish-language media. In the larger electorate, that's a very small group - but in this election voters tend to be valued not by their numbers but by their locations. Considering that in the 2000 vote, the margin of victory in both Florida and New Mexico was in just three digits, the investment could pay off. Hispanic voters are diverse in culture and traditions. Americans with ancestries that are Mexican, Puerto Rican and Central American have a history of most often voting with the Democrats. Most Cuban-Americans have been dependable voters for the Republicans. Newcomers across the spectrum, however, are seen as different, free from deep-seated party loyalties, and therefore perhaps more receptive to overtures of "Viva Bush" on the one hand, or "Unidos con Kerry" on the other. However the parties say it, it's bienvenidos to American politics all the way around. Latinos are now the nation's largest minority group, and no president in modern times has won without at least 30 percent of their votes. The Latino courtship started last September, when Democratic hopefuls held a bilingual debate before the primaries. The Democratic National Convention had the nation's only Hispanic governor, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, as its chairman, and in his acceptance speech at the Republican convention, President Bush exercised his bilingual muscles, saying, "No dejaremos a ningún niño atrás - we will leave no child behind." Senator John Kerry has spoken before several major Latino organization and seems to have an easier time with Spanish pronunciation. It's all a far cry from campaigns of yesteryear, when candidates could get away with just posing with mariachis, eating empanadas or dancing a rumba. What should not get lost in the translation, though, are some things that haven't changed. Hispanic students are still the most likely to drop out of high school. One-third of Latinos don't have access to health care. And employment opportunities remain elusive in the barrios and beyond. The campaigns need to address the issues with more than just slogans - regardless of the language. Democrats Enjoy Image Boost Among Hispanics New polls from a pro-Democrat group show the party's standing rising among Hispanics in four key states, but many voters said they did not perceive a clear agenda from John Kerry. By FRANK DAVIES September 16, 2004 WASHINGTON - Hispanic voters in Florida and three other battleground states view the Democratic Party more favorably -- and President Bush worse -- than they did five months ago, according to polls conducted for a pro-Democrat political action group. But another poll conducted for the centrist group, the New Democrat Network, and released Wednesday contains troubling news for John Kerry: About half of all voters don't believe the nominee or his party has presented a ``clear agenda for the future.'' ''It's important that many voters say the Democrats and Kerry don't have a clear agenda, that they're not sure Kerry will take them,'' said Mark Penn, a Democratic pollster and strategist. In a nationwide poll of 800 likely voters on Sept. 9-12, only 41 percent said Kerry had a ''clear agenda'' compared to 57 percent for Bush. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Several strategists and pollsters who attended a New Democrat Network gathering said Kerry has a good opportunity to capitalize on a strong Democratic trend among Hispanics in Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada and can make inroads in Florida. In a survey conducted by Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen of Miami for the New Democrat Network, there was a 9 percent increase in the rating of the Democratic Party by Hispanic voters in Florida from April to early September. The poll of 800 Hispanic voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The New Democrat Network credited the boost in the party's standing to a series of Spanish-language TV ads the group ran in the four states beginning in March, stressing the Democrats' record on education and the economy. Bush had a 57-35 percent advantage over Kerry among Florida Hispanics, due to the president's overwhelming support, at 72 percent, among Cuban-American voters. But that's less than the 65 percent of the state's Hispanic vote that Bush took in the 2000 election. Bendixen and Joe Garcia, the former Cuban-American National Foundation executive director who joined the Network as a senior advisor, said Kerry should emphasize economic and health care issues in appealing to Hispanic voters, including Cubans. ''There's an open door to make small but important gains among Cubans'' by Democrats, Bendixen said.
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