|
 |
|
Esta página no está disponible en español. The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose… 60% Of Young Male Voters Say War In Iraq, "Not The Right Decision" Zogby/Williams Identity Poll Reveals… Gender Gap Non-Existent In 2004 Election According to Nationwide Russell Sage/Zogby Poll of Women Voters
The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose By John Zogby September 30, 2004 Tonight President George W. Bush and his Democrat opponent Senator John Kerry will engage in their first of three debates. Historically, these televised presidential debates have had a significant impact on the final outcome of several elections. In 1960, a polished and articulate Massachusetts Senator named John F. Kennedy showed that he could compete with a more experienced and older sitting Vice-President, Richard Nixon. And in 1980, when Americans seemed to have made up their minds about not voting for President Jimmy Carter, they needed to be assured that his opponent, Republican Ronald Reagan was more than a dangerous ideologue or a Grade B actor. Reagan delivered one of the great knockout blows in presidential debate history: "Are you better off than you were fours ago?" Tonight’s debate is especially momentous because the race is extremely close, the two sides are very polarized, and there are only a small number — perhaps only 6 million voters nationwide — who are genuinely undecided. The stakes are important for both candidates, but much more so for Mr. Kerry. In May of this year I wrote a column arguing that Senator F. John Kerry would defeat President George W. Bush in the November election. I based my conclusion on several factors. First, that Mr. Bush was posting weak numbers for an incumbent. In fact, the last three incumbents seeking re-election with numbers like his all went down in defeat — Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and the President’s father in 1992. Second, I noted that Mr. Kerry led the President by double digits on four of the top five issues — the economy, health care, the conduct in the war in Iraq, and education. Third, is Mr. Kerry’s own history as a good "closer", who has famously reached for victory in the throes of defeat several times before — notably from a dismal 2003 to victories in the Democratic primaries. I think even more today that if John Kerry loses this race it will be because he has blown an opportunity rather than from any innate strength of the present incumbent. Since mid-August, the President has had several good weeks in tandem with a tepid performance by his opponent, but even in the glow of his post-convention bounce, Mr. Bush is still posting barometric readings that are over 50% negative. In my last column, I noted that Senator Kerry had to start giving his base something to energize them. He began to do that with his strongest statement against the conduct of the war in Iraq to date on Monday (September 20), followed by daily attacks on the war every day since. Remember, this is a candidate who gets about 45%-47% of the vote just by showing up. That is the purely anti-Bush vote. Kerry’s problem has been that up until last week he had not given his base anything to grab on to. This group does not want to hear that he "would do the same thing in Iraq all over again". They want a genuine alternative and the Senator has been missing his target with the convoluted, nuanced statements of a professor leading a seminar and not the clear, bumper sticker, crisp messages of a successful campaign. But the Massachusetts Senator still has aces in his hand that he can play. First, the President’s numbers are still not good. Despite a few outlier polls that show a large single digit or even a double digit lead for Mr. Bush, my poll has the President’s lead at only 3% and the average of all the public polls (as of this writing) is only a 4 point lead. Mr. Bush is only polling at 46% to 48% both nationally and in many key battleground states, hardly victory territory. And his barometric readings are still more negative than positive. The best that can be said is that the President’s numbers are still better than Mr. Kerry’s. But my polling reveals another important fact — Mr. Kerry has more room for growth than the President. He has to first consolidate his base with an anti-war message that his base wants. He need not worry about accusations of flip-flopping on this issue because that is what the other side says about him and they are never going to vote for him under any circumstances. This alone will bring him to parity with the President in the polls. From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new. They seem to have their minds made up about the President and have been given no reason to vote for Mr. Kerry. What is most important to this group? They agree with Mr. Bush on values, leadership, the war on terror, and likeability. They prefer Mr. Kerry on the economy, health care, the war, and education. The debates will take on a special significance this year. The stakes are extremely high. Will Mr. Kerry be able bridge the likeability gap? Can he find his bumper sticker messages to make his point to those who want a change? Will he be able to put the President on the defensive on the war, health care, the economy, etc. without appearing to be bullying a leader that Americans seem to like? And can he make a connection with the war in Iraq spinning out of control and a squandered opportunity to pursue Osama bin Laden with full global support by alienating long-time US allies and dissipating US troop strength? Will the President be able to force Mr. Kerry on the defensive by revealing the Senator’s changing positions? Can he do as he did successfully during the Republican National Convention by effectively linking his leadership on the war on terrorism with the ongoing war in Iraq? Can he finesse the three debates by just showing himself to be a plainspoken guy next door? The pressure is really on Mr. Kerry to give a strong performance in both the debates and in the remaining five weeks of this campaign. If he is the John Kerry who defeated popular Governor Bill Weld in the Senate race of 2000 and the one who came from dismally low numbers in 2003 to win the primaries in 2004, he will win this race. As of this writing this race is still John Kerry’s to lose. John Zogby is the President and CEO of Zogby International, an independent polling firm and writes this column for the Washington, DC and St. Louis Business Journals where it first appeared. ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL 60% of Young Male Voters Say War in Iraq, "Not the Right Decision"; 59% Say President Bush Misled America and Executive Branch- Highly Responsible for the Problems that US faces Today, New Zogby/Williams Identity Poll Reveals September 29, 2004 Most political pundits believe that the final month of the 2004 presidential campaign will center around the war in Iraq. If so, then young men are likely to cast a vote of "no confidence" in George W. Bush. These are the findings of a new Zogby/Williams Identity poll conducted by Zogby Interactive from September 3 through September 7, 2004. The interactive survey was conducted online among 850 males between the ages of eighteen and thirty years old. The survey reveals that 60 percent disagree with the statement that George W. Bush made the right decision to go war with Iraq. (Only 40 percent think Bush made the correct decision.) These attitudes remain firmly held when other aspects of the war are probed. For example, 63 percent disagree with the claim that Bush made the right decision to go to war, even if the intelligence data were flawed. Strong opposition to the war among the nation’s young men has created a crisis of confidence in the president’s leadership: 59 percent believe President Bush misled the American people from the beginning about the need to go to war with Iraq. These negative assessments of the Commander-in-Chief are held by all major racial and income groups among the young men surveyed. For example, when asked if George W. Bush made the right choice in going to war, 36 percent of whites "completely agree;" among Hispanics and African-Americans, the figures are 30 percent and 18 percent respectively. Those at the bottom of the income scale have very negative opinions about the President’s decision to go to war: of those earning less than $15,000, only 27 percent "completely agree" with Bush’s decision. As income levels rise, support for the President’s judgment about the Iraq war decision rises only modestly. For example, of those earning $75,000 or more, 36 percent "completely agree" with Bush’s decision. There is some evidence that suggests a lack of support for the Iraq War is translating into a crisis of confidence in government. When young men were asked which persons or institutions were "highly responsible" for the serious problems and challenges we face as a country today, the number one response was the executive branch (59 percent), followed by the media (56 percent), Congress (55 percent), citizens (50 percent), special interests (48 percent), voters (46 percent), education (43 percent), and corporate America (40 percent). Certainly, the Iraq War has contributed to the lack of confidence in Congress and the President. The corporate scandals (e.g., Enron, Martha Stewart, etc.) have also not gone unnoticed as corporate America and special interests come in for heavy criticism. But some institutions emerged relatively unscathed in the blame game. For example, only 14 percent of respondents thought local governments were "highly responsible" for the country’s problems. Other large institutions were also exempt: for example, just 16 percent mentioned labor unions as "highly responsible" for the country’s challenges; religious institutions were cited by 26 percent; and 31 percent specified the courts, with 38 percent specifically mentioning the Supreme Court. This crisis of confidence is also evident when young men are asked whether the major institutions of government are ready to undertake the missions presented to them. The United Nations led the list with 68 percent saying it was either "completely" or "somewhat unprepared" to undertake its mission. But the agencies of the U.S. government hardly fared much better: 58 percent thought the Department of Homeland Security was either "completely unprepared" or "somewhat unprepared" to undertake its mission; Congress, 55 percent; the President, 54 percent; the Transportation Safety Administration, 50 percent; CIA, 49 percent; and the judicial system, 43 percent. Only the Pentagon emerged relatively unscathed with just 31 percent saying it was unprepared. (The media also came in for special criticism with 63 percent saying it was unprepared for its mission. Twenty-five years ago, President Jimmy Carter went on national television and delivered his "crisis of confidence" speech. Noting the widespread lack of public trust in government, Carter declared: "The gap between our citizens and our government has never been so wide. The people are looking for honest answers; clear leadership, not false claims and evasiveness and politics as usual." These are exactly the same sentiments expressed by the nation’s young men when asked in this survey about George W. Bush and Iraq. Specifically, 55 percent say their level of trust in the U.S. government has either "gone down" or "disappeared completely" when they think about the war in Iraq. Likewise, when asked what would keep them from joining the military, the number one response was "disagreement with American foreign policy" (32 percent). Finally, when asked how people in their communities would respond if they decided to join a branch of the U.S. military, 17 percent thought their fellow citizens "wouldn’t care;" 15 percent said they "might try to change my decision;" 24 percent believe "they would think I’ve lost my mind." These responses total an astounding 56 percent; only 43 percent believe their neighbors "would be proud of me." This does not mean that the young males surveyed have lost either their sense of duty or patriotism. When asked what would most motivate the respondent to join the U.S. military, 30 percent mentioned "defending my country from foreign invasion;" 23 percent cited "patriotism." And when queried as to what issues the respondent would fight and die for personally, the leading answer was "my family" (41 percent) followed by America (24 percent). Of all the branches in the U.S. armed forces, the Air Force is cited by a plurality (36 percent) as the one they would join if they could. (This relatively high response undoubtedly reflects love of technology that young men often exhibit.) This was followed by the Navy (21 percent), Marines (17 percent), National Guard (14 percent), and Army (13 percent). According to Mark Williams, co-founder of the Zogby Williams Institute; "the bottom line sentiment contained in these polling data is clear: among young men aged 18-30, there is a crisis of confidence in the major institutions of the U.S. government and its leaders. The source of that crisis is clear: the war in Iraq." The Zogby/Williams Identity Poll was conducted by Zogby Interactive online. Respondents were invited to participate from panels of likely voters who have agreed to take part in online surveys. Respondents followed instructions leading them to the survey located on secure servers at Zogby Interactive headquarters in Utica, New York. All surveys were completed from Friday, September 3 through Thursday September 9, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. Slight weights were added to race to more accurately reflect the population. ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL Gender Gap Non-Existent in 2004 Election According to Nationwide Russell Sage/Zogby Poll of Women Voters Married and Single Women Are Real Gap in Horserace; No Middle Ground on Abortion; Terror Trumps Economy as Top Issue; Suburban Women Are Split September 29, 2004 The gender gap so evident in recent elections has evaporated, and women split evenly on whether to support the Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards ticket, according to a new Russell Sage College/Zogby International poll of 1,001 women who are likely voters. The poll was conducted September 20 to 23, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. "This is a startling development," said John Zogby, CEO of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. "In the past three presidential elections, beginning with Bill Clinton in 1992, there’s been a real gap, with women going more heavily to the Democratic candidate. We aren’t seeing that in this election–Kerry only leads Bush by one percentage point, 47% to 46%." Zogby also noted that recent Zogby Interactive polls have shown men splitting nearly as evenly–a change from the 2000 election, when they favored Republican George W. Bush over Democrat Al Gore. The survey also finds that, absent a gender gap, a Marriage Gap emerges among women voters–single women are backing Kerry/Edwards by a 2-to-1 margin (66% to 34%) while married women favor Bush/Cheney by 11 points (52% to 41%). Married women whose husbands manage the bulk of financial decisions in their household are for Bush/Cheney over Kerry/Edwards (73% to 23%). These margins hold in other questions in the poll. Battleground: Suburbia The Russell Sage/Zogby poll found Mr. Kerry leading Mr. Bush by 63% to 31% in urban areas, while Mr. Bush leads Mr. Kerry by 55% to 38% in rural areas. But the battleground appears to be suburbs, where Mr. Bush edges out Mr. Kerry 49% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error. "Traditionally, whoever wins the suburban vote wins the election," pollster John Zogby said. "That Bush leads in the suburbs among women isn’t good news for the Kerry campaign. Kerry has to perform much better among this demographic." Abortion–51% of All Women Polled are Pro-Choice; Single Women at 60% Fifty-one percent of women identify themselves as pro-choice versus 42% who say they are pro-life. Married women nearly split on the question, with 49% saying they are pro-choice versus 45% who call themselves pro-life–just outside the poll’s margin of error. For single women, however, the pro-choice position wins by a 60% to 34% margin. Women are more likely to take firm stands on abortion than the nuanced positions often favored by politicians. A quarter of women (24%) say they are pro-choice and abortion should be legal in all cases, while a similar quarter (25%) say they are pro-life and favor outlawing abortion in all cases except rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother. Much less, 16%, say they are personally pro-life, but favor preserving other women’s right to choose–a position often held by politicians. Choice and the Supreme Court A plurality of women do not seem eager to see abortion rights restricted. When faced with the prospect of at least two U.S. Supreme Court justices being named by the next president, half (49%) of women say they are less likely to support Mr. Bush’s reelection if he is able to appoint pro-life justices who would move to restrict abortion, while a third (33%) say they are more likely to favor his reelection. This is most pronounced in the African-American community, where three-quarters (77%) say this makes them less likely to back Mr. Bush for reelection. Three-in-five (61%) of the youngest voting-age women (18-29 year-olds) are less likely to support Mr. Bush’s reelection for this reason. "What’s really surprising here is the lack of middle ground on abortion," John Zogby said. "Women opted for the more strident positions on either side and did not seem to be willing to meet in the middle, suggesting this is a no-win issue for any candidate vying for the women’s vote." Security Concerns Trump Economy Women also are more security-conscious in the post-9/11 world. By a margin of 54% to 39%, women say people need to be willing to give up some rights to increase their overall security. But as with the presidential race, the marriage gap is fully on display here. Married women say people need to be willing to give up their rights by a margin of 57% to 34%, while single women are opposed to this premise by a 53% to 46% margin. Women place greater emphasis on security from terrorism than they do on economic security. While women consider both issues very important as they go into the voting booth, women say they consider security from terrorism more important than the security of a paycheck by 54% to 37%. This is one of the few questions in the survey that did not split on marriage lines, with married and single women agreeing in equal percentages. Passion vs. 9/11 By a nearly two-to-one margin (40% to 23%) women pick producer Mel Gibson’s "The Passion of the Christ" as a film they’d like every American to see, over filmmaker Michael Moore’s "Fahrenheit 9/11." Moore does run ahead of Gibson with his target audience, those aged 18-29, where "Fahrenheit 9/11" bested "The Passion of the Christ" by a 35% to 31% margin. The numbers become even more stark when the question is considered using the marriage gap. A majority (52%) of single women pick "Fahrenheit 9/11" over the 31% who choose "The Passion." This trend reverses among married women, however, who opt for "The Passion" over "Fahrenheit 9/11" by a 40% to 17% margin. The Sage Colleges was founded in 1916 and comprises Russell Sage College, a private, residential, four-year comprehensive college for women in Troy, N.Y., and the coeducation Sage Graduate School and Sage College of Albany. The Sage Colleges is a member of the Associated New American Colleges, a group of small- to medium-sized comprehensive private colleges and universities dedicated to integrating liberal and professional studies. Zogby International conducted interviews of 1001 women likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from 9/20/04 thru 9/23/04. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
|