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Esta página no está disponible en español. Poll: Florida Battle Still A Tossup… Voter Rolls Swell Along I-4 Corridor
Poll: Florida Battle Still A Tossup By JAMES KUHNHENN October 19, 2004
Bush’s lead over Kerry is 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's 4-percentage point margin of error, which means the race is in a statistical tie. In early October, after the first of three nationally televised debates, Bush led 48-44. The poll surveyed 625 likely voters last Thursday through Saturday, Oct. 14-16, starting a day after the last presidential debate in Tempe, Ariz. Mason-Dixon Polling Research conducted the poll for The Miami Herald and other Florida news organizations. The poll contains good news for both candidates. More voters view Bush positively than Kerry, with 49 percent saying they have favorable opinions of the president and 41 percent holding that view of Kerry. But the poll shows that the three debates reinforced a majority of Kerry voters, some of whom may have been wavering in their support. Five percent of Florida voters said the debates either changed their choices or gave them second thoughts about their choices, though Kerry and Bush seemed to benefit equally from such vacillation. However, 83 percent of Florida voters said the debates didn't change their votes; 12 percent said they didn't watch them. "The biggest thing that has occurred since the previous polling was the debates, and people saw what they wanted to see," Mason-Dixon pollster Larry Harris said. "They’ve dug in their heels. There's so little room to wiggle." Six percent of voters surveyed remained undecided. Third-party candidate Ralph Nader, who had the support of 2 percent of likely voters in the early October poll, garnered less than 1 percent in the new poll. In 2000, Nader won 97,000 votes in Florida. Bush beat Al Gore by 537 votes in the state. Harris said that in such a close contest, Bush should be wary of the undecided voters. "If he’s under 50 on the vote, that’s right on the edge," he said. "Traditionally, more undecideds are going to break for the challenger." Still, Bush polled well in central Florida, where he was leading Kerry 51-42 percent. In 2000, he won that region of the state 52-48 percent. He was leading 49-44 in the traditional bellwether region around Tampa Bay. He won that part of Florida 51-49 in 2000. Kerry was strongest in the southeast part of the state, where he led 59-34 percent, an improvement of 2 points over the poll in early October. Bush was strongest in north Florida, where he led 60-34, a 2-point decline from the early October poll. Bush led among men, 54-42 percent. Kerry led among women, 49-41 percent. White voters supported Bush over Kerry by 51-43 percent, while black voters supported Kerry 82-5 percent. But in a sign that Kerry is having trouble with a key Democratic voting bloc, more than 13 percent of black voters remained undecided, the highest of any demographic group identified in the poll. Voters of Cuban or other Hispanic ancestry supported Bush by 68-28 percent. Florida, the epicenter of the 2000 election, is one of the key battleground states again this year. Both campaigns acknowledge that a victory in two of the three states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania would virtually guarantee the winner the election. Bush and Kerry are making weekly campaign appearances in Florida. Kerry was there Monday and left from Orlando on Tuesday morning; Bush was in St. Petersburg on Tuesday. Oct. 14-16 Florida presidential preference poll This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from Oct. 14 through Oct. 16, 2004. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping. Do you recognize the name ______ -- (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________ -- RECOGNIZE FAVORABLE -- RECOGNIZE UNFAVORABLE -- RECOGNIZE NEUTRAL -- DON'T RECOGNIZE George W. Bush -- 49% -- 40% -- 11% -- - John Kerry -- 41% -- 42% -- 17% -- - QUESTION: If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for: Democratic ticket of John Kerry & John Edwards -- 45% Republican ticket of George W. Bush & Dick Cheney -- 48% Another party ticket -- 1% Undecided (NOT READ) -- 6% QUESTION: What is your current official party voter registration -- Are you registered to vote as a: Democrat -- 281 (45%) Republican -- 259 (41%) Independent or Other -- 85 (14%) QUESTION: Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity -- White -- 487 (78%) Black -- 65 (10%) Hispanic -- 69 (11%) Other -- 4 (1%) SEX: Male -- 305 (49%) Female -- 320 (51%) REGION: North Florida -- 115 Central Florida -- 140 Gulf Coast -- 195 South Florida -- 175 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE -- BUSH -- KERRY -- OTHERS -- UND November 2003 -- 57% -- 34% -- N/A -- 9% April 2004 -- 51% -- 43% -- N/A -- 6% July 2004 -- 48% -- 46% -- 2% -- 4% Early October 2004 -- 48% -- 44% -- 3% -- 5% Mid October 2004 -- 48% -- 45% -- 1% -- 6% G.W. BUSH NAME REC -- FAV -- UNFAV -- NEUT -- DR July 2004 -- 47% -- 40% -- 13% -- - Early October 2004 -- 47% -- 40% -- 13% -- - Mid October 2004 -- 49% -- 40% -- 11% -- -Kerry's unfavorable name recognition (42%) remains higher than his favorable recognition (41%). KERRY NAME REC -- FAV -- UNFAV -- NEUT -- DR November 2003 -- 23% -- 21% -- 26% -- 30% April 2004 -- 32% -- 42% -- 25% -- 1% July 2004 -- 43% -- 41% -- 16% -- - Early October 2004 -- 41% -- 42% -- 17% -- - Mid October 2004 -- 41% -- 42% -- 17% -- - REGION -- BUSH -- KERRY -- OTHERS -- UNDECIDED North Florida -- 60% -- 34% -- - -- 6% Central Florida -- 52% -- 41% -- 1% -- 6% Gulf Coast -- 51% -- 42% -- 1% -- 6% Southeast Florida -- 34% -- 59% -- 1% -- 6% SEX -- BUSH -- KERRY -- OTHERS -- UNDECIDED Men -- 54% -- 41% -- 1% -- 4% Women -- 42% -- 49% -- 1% -- 8% AGE -- BUSH -- KERRY -- OTHERS -- UNDECIDED 18-34 -- 41% -- 51% -- 1% -- 7% 35-49 -- 51% -- 41% -- - -- 8% 50-64 -- 49% -- 46% -- 1% -- 4% 65+ -- 47% -- 47% -- 1% -- 5% RACE -- BUSH -- KERRY -- OTHERS -- UNDECIDED Whites -- 51% -- 43% -- 1% -- 5% Blacks -- 5% -- 82% -- - -- 14% Cubans/Hispanics -- 68% -- 28% -- - -- 4% PARTY AFFILIATION -- BUSH -- KERRY -- OTHERS -- UNDECIDED Democrats -- 14% -- 79% -- 1% -- 6% Republicans -- 88% -- 7% -- - -- 5% Independents -- 39% -- 49% -- 2% -- 9%Nader received 0.6% and others received 0.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2004 RealCities.com and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.realcities.com Voter Rolls Swell Along I-4 Corridor By Jim Stratton and Mark Schlueb | Sentinel Staff Writers October 21, 2004 Voter registration surged in the pivotal Interstate 4 corridor during the past two months, with 181,589 new voters -- carved almost equally among Democrats, Republicans and independents -- added to the eight-county region. Fueled by unprecedented registration drives, voter rolls grew by nearly 7 percent before the books closed Oct. 4, making the counties clustered around I-4 more crucial than ever to George W. Bush and John Kerry. As the campaign enters its final 12 days, many analysts say the state's voter-rich midsection -- and its volatile mix of newcomers, Hispanics and young voters -- could determine which candidate collects Florida's 27 electoral votes. "I call it the 'Highway to Heaven,' " said Susan MacManus, a political scientist with the University of South Florida. "Whoever wins it wins the state. And whoever wins the state probably wins the presidency." There are now 2.87 million registered voters in the region: about 1.13 million Democrats, 1.08 million Republicans and nearly 656,000 independents along the corridor. That compares with 2.69 million eligible voters in August, and 2.38 million along the corridor during the disputed 2000 presidential election. It adds up to making Florida, the biggest of about a half-dozen battleground states that Bush and Kerry are fighting to win, even more volatile in the 2004 election. The surge was driven by a monumental, big-money effort to sign up as many new voters in Florida as possible, backed by well-financed political-activist groups and grass-roots workers. Concentrating on the state's swing-voting midsection, considered the key to whether Florida goes Democrat or Republican on Nov. 2, they went door-to-door with hand-held computers, camped out with registration forms at malls and used sophisticated phone banks, all to urge people to register. In the wake of that effort, Democrats along the I-4 corridor now account for about 39.4 percent of all voters and Republicans make up 37.8 percent. Free agents, voters not affiliated with a major party, comprise 22.8 percent of the total, a 4 percentage-point increase from four years ago. The number of independent voters along I-4 leapt by more than 203,000 voters in four years and by 60,000 in the final two months alone. Loyal only to their personal philosophies, they are consummate swing voters, a profile both Bush and Kerry are desperate to capture. Their sudden growth -- and the rush of late registrations in the final days before the deadline -- raises significant questions about how accurate any statewide polls may be. "A lot of [the newly registered voters] are young and have no voting history," said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. "They're definitely not being included in the 'likely voter' polls." Now, for both campaigns, the focus is on getting people to vote. Bush and Kerry are locked in a virtual dead heat in Florida, according to nearly every recent poll. Most show a flat-out tie or either Bush or Kerry ahead by a scant few points, but any lead is within the statistical margins of error. Democrats think most of the independents ultimately will support John Kerry. The Kerry campaign and the collection of Democratic-leaning independent organizations supporting the senator from Massachusetts have been targeting that group for months. "The one thing about independent voters that's been consistent in polls is that they disapprove the way the president is doing his job," said Matt Miller, a Kerry spokesman. "They are convinced the country is headed in the wrong direction." Miller claimed the Bush campaign is doing little aimed at independents, instead concentrating on making sure Republicans get to the polls. He pointed out that Kerry running mate Sen. John Edwards campaigned this week in Fort Myers, a Republican stronghold, while Kerry headed to Tampa Bay, one of the most politically divided parts of the state. "We think we'll do very well with independent voters," Miller said, "and we are spending a lot of time reaching out to them." Karl Rove, Bush's top political strategist, contends that Republicans ultimately will win the battle for new and independent voters. Saying the Democrats were "Johnny-come-lately" to registering voters, Rove said Republicans have "been working the problem for four years." Bush spokesman Scott Stanzel said the Central Florida registration figures show just how high public interest is in the race. "Voters are indicating in a higher percentage than ever that the election will matter in their lives," Stanzel said. "Voters have had four years to watch this president's leadership, and we expect to build upon the support the president received in 2000." The state is expected to release final voter-registration figures for all counties in Florida this week. A review of 15 large counties across the state -- including those in the I-4 corridor -- suggests Democrats will retain a slight edge in overall registration. In the counties reviewed by the Orlando Sentinel, which typically account for about 70 percent of all Florida voters, Democratic registration is up about 14.6 percent since 2000, to 2.9 million. Republican registration is up 11.1 percent, to 2.6 million. Registration of independents, however, has jumped almost 43 percent during the past four years, and now stands at 1.6 million. John Kennedy and Tamara Lytle of the Sentinel staff contributed to this report.
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WASHINGTON – The presidential debates helped Sen. John Kerry solidify his support in Florida, but the contest in that crucial state is still a tossup, with President Bush holding a slender edge, according to a new poll.