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Esta página no está disponible en español. Orange County A Perfect Microcosm Of Split US Electorate; Whoever Swings This Key District In Florida Stands A Good Chance Of Winning The White House…Party Lines Not A Factor In Puerto Rican Vote
Orange County A Perfect Microcosm Of Split US Electorate; Whoever Swings This Key District In Florida Stands A Good Chance Of Winning The White House Dan Collings October 29, 2004 South China Morning Post Only in America could a vast six-lane highway, lined with superstores and littered with rubbish be referred to as the "orange blossom trail" without even a tinge of irony. The eclectic mix of people who use this highway, the residents of Orange County, Florida, are part of an exclusive group of voters, in the few remaining swing states, whose choices could still have a decisive impact on the presidential election. From the low-paid service workers staffing the fast-food chains, to the well-heeled businessmen commuting to downtown Orlando, to the churchgoers going to worship, these people have wildly different interests, fears and aspirations. The challenges facing the presidential candidates in winning their support reoccur in other equally diverse counties across Florida. Consequently, whoever triumphs in Orange County next Tuesday should win the state, and quite possibly the White House. Orange County, in the heart of central Florida, was once a reliable Republican bastion. In 2000, it turned blue for the first time, giving Al Gore 140,000 votes to George W. Bush's 134,500. As Mr Bush's victory in Florida as a whole rested on a margin of just 537 votes, Mr Gore's success frustrated Republicans hoping for a clearer win, while many Democrats resolved to build on this lead and avenge their loss next time around. With an estimated population of almost 965,000, Orange County is now the fifth-largest in Florida. Its political clout has not gone unnoticed: President Bush launched his re-election bid there back in March and Senator John Kerry has visited on numerous occasions since. Issues that have dominated the race nationally have also resonated in Orange County. Home to Disney World in Orlando, Orange County is particularly sensitive to the terrorist threat. According to local businessman Don Ammerman: "When the terrorists hit New York City, we felt the aftershock." Not only did residents worry that Orlando might be the next target, but locals suffered acutely from the drop-off in tourism after 9/11. The question of who can best protect America remains deeply salient. Off the radar screen of the national campaign, the rival parties face two crucial challenges. The first concerns efforts to reach out to the vast number of new residents who've settled recently in Florida. From 2000 to 2003, Orange County's population increased by more than 68,000, the majority of whom are of Hispanic origin. For many years, Florida's dominant Hispanic group has been the Cuban Americans. Proven Republican stalwarts, in 2000 more than 80 per cent of them backed Mr Bush. Yet most of Orange County's new Hispanics are Puerto Rican. This changes the electoral dynamics significantly. The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico is US territory, and its people are US citizens. Unlike Cubans, who have to wait years for citizenship, Puerto Ricans have the right to vote as soon as they arrive on the US mainland. The Republicans' uncompromising anti-Castro rhetoric, which attracts many Cubans, cuts little ice with Puerto Ricans. The new migrants have no immediate political loyalties. They are the ultimate swing voters. In the battle for the Puerto Ricans, the Republicans have placed great emphasis on the popularity of Governor Jeb Bush among Hispanics. Governor Bush, whose wife is Mexican, won a clear majority of Hispanic votes when re-elected governor in 2002. Republicans hope his popularity will brush off on his brother, but not everyone is convinced. As Doug Head, chairman of the Orange County Democrats, puts it: "The Republicans might be talking Spanish, but we're talking economics." Like other new migrants, many Puerto Ricans are drawn to Orange County by the promise of jobs, but are often disappointed. Typically, the only jobs available pay low wages and rarely offer healthcare insurance. The "working poor" usually have to manage without. Senator Kerry's promise to raise the minimum wage and extend healthcare coverage has proved popular. A recent poll by Orlando's El Nuevo Dia newspaper found 42 per cent of Hispanics in the Orlando area backing Mr Kerry while 34 per cent supported Mr Bush. One Spanish-speaking canvasser for Mr Bush, based in Orange County, admitted that most people she'd spoken to were backing Mr Kerry. "They like his plan for healthcare," she said. "It might not be perfect, but people say they'd rather have something than nothing." The second crucial challenge for the parties is mobilising their own supporters: in a race as close as Florida's, this is even more important than winning over undecided voters. In the aftermath of the 2000 election, the Republicans led the way in forging new voter mobilisation efforts. Karl Rove, Mr Bush's chief political adviser, spoke publicly of an estimated four million Evangelical Christians nationwide, natural Bush supporters, who failed to vote in 2000. Since then Mr Rove has overseen a grassroots effort to rally these supporters. In Florida, Jeb Bush's 2002 victory relied heavily on voter mobilisation efforts. The Republicans hope to repeat this performance next week and have recruited 77,000 volunteers to get their supporters to the polls. Yet after a slow start, the Democrats, too, are mobilising. Ethnic minorities, especially the black community, are far more likely to support Mr Kerry, yet for various reasons many have failed to vote in the past. To counter this, a multitude of liberal leaning groups have invaded Florida, bringing with them millions of dollars and thousands of professionally organised activists. Their first task has been to register minority voters; their second to ensure that they turn out. While some groups are explicitly partisan, others have waived their right to advocate one candidate over another. Taking a non-partisan route allows them to receive tax-deductible contributions, quite an incentive for potential donors. In Orange County, the Florida Consumer Action Network Foundation is a non-partisan group, whose aim is to mobilise disenfranchised minorities, especially African Americans, Hispanics, and gays and lesbians. Andre Pachnik, the local director, described his organisation as "liberal and progressive", but insisted that it never mentioned any political party or candidate. His stated mission is to empower voters, but in doing so Mr Pachnik has undoubtedly bolstered the ranks of registered voters with Democratic sympathies. Mr Pachnik's group, which has registered 23,000 voters since January, is just the tip of the iceberg. According to Bill Cowles, Orange County's supervisor of elections, numerous registration drives led by progressive organisations have left the tally of newly registered voters "leaning heavily" towards the Democrats. The crucial question is how many of these voters will go to the polls. Mr Pachnik is clear. "All of them," he said. "We'll bug the heck out of them until they do." Talking to local party officials, one is almost tempted to believe him. Voter mobilisation in Orange County on both sides is definitely a science, not an art. Gone are the days of putting up posters or distributing bumper stickers. Now, Palm Pilot-toting officials, armed with the names and addresses of every registered voter and their party affiliation, go door-to-door, targeting supporters and reminding them of the importance of voting weeks before the election. Come election day, thousands of volunteers from both parties and independent groups aim to harass every known supporter until they relent and head to the polls. Victory, both in Orange County and in Florida as a whole, may rest on which side proves more persistent. Party Lines Not A Factor In Puerto Rican Vote By Sandra Hernandez October 29, 2004 Margarita Aviles is a registered Republican, but when she votes Tuesday, the Puerto Rican native says, she will cast her ballot for a Democrat. "This isn't about party affiliation," says Aviles, 60, who lives in Fort Lauderdale. "I'm voting for Kerry because I'm not happy with the job President Bush has done. I have a nephew who has been in Iraq for a year, and I worry about him and all those other boys over there." Although Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens by birth, the island retains its status as a U.S. commonwealth. Its residents aren't allowed to vote for president; nor do they have a congressional representative. Once they move to the mainland and establish residency, however, they can vote in all elections. Aviles is among the estimated 571,000 Puerto Ricans living in Florida, whose fickle voting habits and burgeoning numbers make them among the most sought-after voting groups in the state. "They are the real swing vote in Florida," says Dario Moreno, a political scientist at Florida International University. If their numbers initially drew strategists' attention, their willingness to vote for a candidate regardless of party affiliation really put them on the political radar. "They are in play, thanks to that willingness to move back and forth between parties," says Darryl Paulson, a political scientist at the University of South Florida in St. Petersburg. "They are now a force in Florida's politics that candidates can't afford to ignore." Republicans and Democrats are investing time and money this election to woo Puerto Ricans throughout the state. Both parties have spent heavily on Spanish-language television and radio spots in cities with large Puerto Rican populations such as Tampa and Orlando. On Monday, a pro-Democrat group launched an ad specifically targeting Puerto Rican voters, titled "Old San Juan." Similarly, Republicans were poised to release Spanish-language radio ads this week aimed at Puerto Ricans. In addition, Gov. Jeb Bush was host at a Viva Bush rally in Orlando earlier this year. "I've been here 13 years, and I've never seen this kind of courting by both parties," says Frank Nieves, president of the Puerto Rican/Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of Broward. He says he has received about 40 calls at home and work from both Republicans and Democrats asking him and the chamber to participate in events. But with the attention has come a challenge: how to mobilize a community that is spread out geographically and politically. "The majority of Puerto Ricans in South Florida came directly from the island and tend to be much more conservative," Moreno says, "while those who moved from New York are more liberal and tend to be Democrats because they came through a city with a bigger activist community." Moreno's assessment resonates with Zaskia Mendez, a self-described independent who cares more about the candidates' take on social issues then their party affiliation. "For me the three issues that matter most are national security, the economy and abortion," says Mendez, 40, of Royal Palm Beach. "So far, I haven't really heard that much on these issues from either candidate. But I'm leaning to George Bush because of his social values." Whether conservative or liberal, some community leaders say the most effective way to court Puerto Ricans is simply to focus on issues that matter to them, much in the same way they have with Cuban-Americans. "Here in Florida, the two parties have historically talked mostly about Cuba when they talk to Hispanics," says Raul Duany, a founding member of PROFESA, an association of Puerto Rican professionals. "Now you are finally hearing something else. But there has to be some real action and follow-up." Duany, who voted for Bush in 2000, says he was heartened to hear Kerry bring up the issue of Puerto Rico's right to determine the island's status because it shows candidates taking a step beyond the tortilla politics that often lump Hispanics together. Even those who don't view the island's status as a priority say the Puerto Ricans care about basic bread-and-butter issues that are often ignored when it comes to reaching Latinos. "What brings people out to vote is their pocketbook," says former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre, a Puerto Rican Democrat. "I think what Puerto Ricans want to hear about are issues such as education, health insurance and Puerto Rico's status." Perhaps the biggest influence on the Puerto Rican vote this year will be the realization that they have power. "I think you will see a bigger turnout, not necessarily because of the parties' work with us, but because this is our opportunity to send a message ... We are U.S. citizens, and we vote," Duany says.
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