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PUERTO RICO HERALD

New Puerto Rico Herald Poll Shows Rosselló/Fortuño Lead Narrowing


October 29, 2004
Copyright © 2004 PUERTO RICO HERALD. All rights reserved. 

A just completed telephone survey, conducted in Puerto Rico for the Puerto Rico Herald, shows the New Progressive Party’s (NPP) lead over the Popular Democratic Party (PDP) ticket narrowing over the past three weeks.

The poll, undertaken by the Opinion Dynamics Corporation of Cambridge, Massachusetts, interviewed 800 randomly selected persons in an island-wide telephone survey during October 26-28, 2004. It was a follow on to an October 11—14 identical poll of 810 islanders, crafted to track the public attitudes about the election during the closing weeks of the campaign for Governor and Resident Commissioner. A significant development in this second poll is that the number of undecided voters was reduced this week to 12% in the Governor’s race and to 9% in the contest for Resident Commissioner.

The current poll was completed after the second and last television debate featuring the three candidates for governor, Pedro Rosselló (NPP), Aníbal Acevedo Vilá (PDP) and the Puerto Rico Independence Party’s (PIP) candidate, Rubén Berríos. In that verbal tussle, Acevedo Vilá continued his litany of charges of political corruption during the gubernatorial terms of Pedro Rosselló while the NPP candidate excoriated the PDP administration’s handling of the crime problem and public education.

Also aired was Rosselló’s plan to impose a sales tax in exchange for eliminating or reducing the excise taxes for goods coming into the island, an approach that Acevedo Vilá publicly opposes. PIP candidate Rubén Berríos accused the PDP of the same tax strategy, with the difference that rather than announcing it before the election, he was "keeping it under the table."

Following is the current poll’s breakdown of percentages of support for Governor and Resident Commissioner.

FOR GOVERNOR
NPP Pedro Rosselló 44%
PDP Aníbal Acevedo Vilá 39%
PIP Rubén Berríos 05%
UNDECIDED 12%

FOR RESIDENT COMMISSIONER
NPP Luis Fortuño 45%
PDP Roberto Prats 42%
PIP Edwin Irizarry Mora 04%
UNDECIDED 09%

The following box shows a comparison of voter support between last week and the current poll.

TWO WEEK TRACKING POLL FOR GOVERNOR

POLL DATES Rosselló Acevedo Vilá Berríos Undecided
Oct 11 - 14 42% 35% 04% 19%
Oct 26- 28 44% 39% 05% 12%

TWO WEEK TRACKING POLL FOR RESIDENT COMMISSIONER

POLL DATES Fortuño Pratts Irizarry Mora Undecided
Oct 11 - 14 41% 37% 05% 17%
Oct 26- 28 45% 42% 04% 09%

In this week’s sample, all respondents said that they will -- or are very likely to -- vote on November 2nd. The current poll included 50% male and 50% female respondents and its margin of error is +/-3.5%. From the entire sample, 36% of respondents identified themselves as preferring the New Progressive Party (NPP), 33% the Popular Democratic Party (PDP) and 03% the Puerto Rico Independence Party (PIP). The remainder chose "other," or declined to answer the question.

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