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Este informe no está disponible en español. THE NEW YORK TIMESCandidates Courting Hispanic Voteby MICHAEL JANOFSKYJune 25, 2000 DENVER, June 24 -- "Yo quiero mucho," Vice President Al Gore roared in a campaign speech here on Thursday night before the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, assuring its members that he loved them very much. For many Hispanic Americans, especially those eager to vote in this year's presidential election, Mr. Gore and his probable Republican opponent, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, have turned the campaign into a virtual love-fest. Describing themselves as the "soccer moms" of the 2000 elections, Hispanic voters say they have never been courted so aggressively by presidential candidates, giving Hispanics electoral leverage they never had before. And most of the seminars at the association's annual conference here this week were designed to expand the power in the future. "All of a sudden, we're hot," said Victor Hernandez, a member of the Lubbock, Tex., city council. "The parties see us as an opportunity but also a potential threat. They know they have to deal with us, and they know it's better to deal with us as an ally rather than a foe." The amorous turn, a more profound difference in Republican strategy than in Democratic, evolves directly from demographic shifts: Hispanics are now the fastest growing bloc of ethnic voters. The changes are especially significant in the nine states with the largest Hispanic populations. Led by California, New York and Texas, they account for 202 electoral votes -- or 75 percent of the 270 needed to win the White House. An analysis by the Latino group commonly known as Naleo (Na-LAY-o) predicts that the Hispanic share of the 2000 presidential vote will rise to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent in 1996, giving Latino voters the power to influence an otherwise close election, particularly in several important states, including California and Florida. But even if one presidential candidate wins by a wide margin this year, Latino advocates were taking no chances for the future. With seminars this week like "Developing your stump speech," "Working with your party" and "Coordinating with issue constituencies," Naleo officials taught their members how to get more Hispanics into the elective pipeline to make Hispanic voters even more powerful beyond 2000. Panel moderators included specialists on issues that Hispanic voters consistently cite as most important to them -- public education, health care and economic development -- as well as political strategists from both major parties. Arturo Vargas, the Naleo executive director, said about 5,100 Hispanics hold elective office around the country but half of them as members of local school boards, making for a relatively flat triangle of success. Over the last 10 years, the number of Hispanics in Congress has risen to 19 from 11; the number of state lawmakers has increased to 189 from 135; and seven Hispanics hold statewide offices. But with the nation's Hispanic population increasing, to 31.8 million by last year from 22.4 million in 1990, according to the Census Bureau, and an analysis by the association of turnout in 1992 and 1996 suggesting that more Latinos are voting while other groups are voting less often, Mr. Vargas said the number of Hispanic elected officials was certain to rise. As a result, Naleo officials have made sharing political advice and counsel the thrust of their conference in this, an election year. "We want to focus attention on November and the role Latinos will play in the election," he said, reflecting on the mission of the three-day conference. "But we also want to stress professional development. We want people to leave here with new information so they can do better at their jobs in the future with strategies to win. Someplace soon, we want to have a future governor and a U.S. senator." Judging by their campaign efforts this year, Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore recognize the importance of winning the Hispanic vote. That is not necessarily a new strategy for Democrats, but it is for Republicans. And many Republican Party leaders say that with Mr. Bush, whose state has a significant Latino population, they have the right candidate to expand their base, even though aides said a scheduling conflict prevented him from attending the Naleo conference. While Hispanic voters have traditionally supported Democratic candidates, they have shown a new open-mindedness in recent elections toward Republicans. By some estimates, Mr. Bush won as much as 47 percent of the Hispanic vote in his re-election as governor in 1998. The same year, Tony Garza, a Republican, won election as Texas Railroad Commissioner, a powerful position overseeing oil, gas and public utilities. Californians elected three Hispanic Republicans to the state legislature in 1998, even as Gray Davis, a Democrat, won the governor's race, a result that reflected, at least among Hispanics, a repudiation of the policies of his predecessor, Pete Wilson, who opposed social services for immigrants, affirmative action and bilingual education in public schools. Like the vice president, Mr. Bush often uses Spanish in speaking to Latino crowds, boasting that his policies in Texas have been good for Hispanics. Also, he often reminds Latino voters of his sister-in-law's heritage: Columba Bush, who is married to his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, was born in Mexico, and their 24-year-old son, George P. Bush, who speaks fluent Spanish, has become an active campaigner for his uncle.
In addition, many Hispanics complain that Democratic candidates, recognizing the historic gap between Hispanics and Republicans, take the Hispanic vote for granted. "Bush is uniquely positioned with a proven record of winning Hispanic votes," said Michael Madrid, a Republican political consultant who led the seminar on stump speeches. He said that Mr. Bush's attractiveness to Hispanic voters "is as much the messenger as the message." Republicans still appear to have some distance to cover before they capture a majority of the Hispanic vote in any big state. As Mr. Vargas pointed out, only in the last few years have Republicans paid much attention to Hispanic voters, compared with President Clinton and Mr. Gore, who made them a priority in the last two elections. President Bush won only 19 percent of the Hispanic vote in 1992, Mr. Madrid said, and Senator Bob Dole fared worse four years later, with 13 percent. "It's not been for lack of trying," Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado said on Friday, addressing problems Republicans have had connecting with Hispanics. "We had it under President Reagan, but for all the assets Bob Dole had, he was not a warm-and-fuzzy guy. He didn't have the ability to connect. George Bush does. He'll be very competitive with Hispanics this year." Despite recent progress by Republicans, they still encounter problems. For example, in New Mexico, where Latinos account for a third of the vote and four Hispanics (all Democrats) hold statewide offices, the state Republican Party has included only two Hispanics among its 21-member delegation to the national convention in August. And here, Mr. Vargas said, Mr. Bush's absence "sends a message that speaks for itself." Mr. Bush was represented at a luncheon on Friday by Mr. Owens and one of his Colorado cabinet members, Larry E. Trujillo, who recently switched from Democrat to Republican. As for the future, Mr. Hernandez, the Lubbock city official, said it would be a mistake for either party to take Hispanics lightly. "We no longer want a piece of the pie," he said, referring to their growing political might. "We want to be in the kitchen, deciding what kind of pie to make."
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