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Miami Herald

Gore Got Late Lift, Big Edge

BY FRANK DAVIES

November 15, 2000
Copyright © 2000 Miami Herald. All Rights Reserved.

WASHINGTON -- The Hispanic vote nationwide broke significantly for Al Gore in the last few weeks of the campaign, but George W. Bush pulled more votes from Hispanics than the GOP ticket in 1996, according to an analysis of the exit polls from last week's election.

Pollster Celinda Lake also reported Tuesday that exit polls showed a majority of American voters in all age and ethnic groups favor a limited amnesty for immigrants who have lived in the United States for at least five years.

According to her polling, 55 percent of voters agreed with that position -- an issue that is still unsettled in Congress -- while 29 percent opposed it and 16 percent took no position.

Hispanic Trends, a Miami-based polling and research firm, has said its polling showed many Hispanics voted for Gore, who favored the limited amnesty, because Bush avoided taking a position.

Lake said that Gore won the Hispanic vote with 62 percent to Bush's 35 percent. But that was a boost for the GOP from 1996, when Bob Dole polled about 27 percent.

With the exception of Cuban Americans, voters in most Hispanic populations voted for Gore by a large margin: Mexican Americans (69 percent); Puerto Ricans (71 percent); Central Americans (74 percent); South Americans (69 percent).

The Cuban-American vote went 79 percent for Bush. Dario Moreno, a political science professor at Florida International University, said that was directly attributable to the backlash against the Clinton administration over the handling of Elián González.

``If we didn't have the Elián González situation, Al Gore would be president-elect today,'' said Moreno, speaking at a Capitol Hill panel discussion sponsored by the National Immigration Forum.

``Of course, if we didn't have `One Florida' [Gov. Jeb Bush's plan to end affirmative action] we would easily have George W. Bush as president-elect,'' he added, referring to Florida's pivotal 25 electoral votes.

Moreno said that One Florida spurred a backlash and a 72 percent turnout among black voters. And Gore's selection of Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman as his running mate helped boost a 78 percent turnout among Jewish voters.

About 67 percent of Cuban-American voters went to the polls in Florida, he added.

Moreno also said his analysis of exit polls in the state showed why the networks were wrong with early projections that Gore would win Florida. The Voter News Service, which all networks use, did not give enough weight to Cuban-American and rural voters, and over-counted Democrats in Duval County, he said.

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