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Esta página no está disponible en español. THE MIAMI HERALD Poll: Bush Seizes Momentum In Florida President Bush has gained on rival John Kerry in Florida and may even have inched ahead in a race that is still too close to call, according to a new poll. BY LESLEY CLARK August 30, 2004 • Graphic | Click here to see the Florida presidential poll results The shift comes amid signs that the Democratic nominee has failed to fire up his base in Florida. The Herald/St. Petersburg Times survey suggests new challenges for the Democrat, who had been leading the president before many voters knew who he was. Now, a month after the Democratic National Convention, Bush has taken the momentum from Kerry in the largest of the presidential battleground states, pulling 48 percent of registered voters surveyed, compared with 46 percent for Kerry. In a similar poll in March, just after his string of primary victories, Kerry held a five-percentage-point lead over Bush. Bush's current showing in the swing state that delivered him the presidency in 2000 is subject to the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. A recent Los Angeles Times national poll shows Bush with a narrow lead as he arrives in New York City this week for a nominating convention that Republicans hope will cement a November victory. The Florida poll suggests that after months of lagging popularity, Bush is getting a boost from voters impressed with his leadership, with nearly six in 10 voters calling him a ''strong leader.'' He made gains among independent voters -- who in March were far more likely to back Kerry -- and among women. LIKE A BLIND DATE ''Women are first and foremost pro-incumbent,'' said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, who conducted the survey for the two newspapers with Democratic pollster Rob Schroth. ``John Kerry was like the blind date you hadn't met. He was super-duper. Since then, he's rung the bell, picked these women up, and some don't like what they see.'' The poll also suggests that voters, particularly women, are setting aside their discomfort with mounting casualties from the war in Iraq and a lethargic economy and giving Bush improved job ratings, although he still hovers precariously below 50 percent. The survey of 800 registered voters was conducted Aug. 22-25, just as Bush and Kerry traded barbs over a series of attack ads that questioned a central theme of Kerry's campaign: his leadership in Vietnam. National polls have suggested that the flap has slightly wounded Kerry, but a wide majority of voters in Florida -- 58 percent -- say a candidate's military service in Vietnam is not a ``legitimate political issue.'' Most promising to the White House is likely to be the electorate's trust in Bush in the very issues that he has made the hallmarks of his reelection: the fight against terrorism and the invasion of Iraq. Those surveyed listed Iraq and terrorism as the two most pressing issues, giving secondary importance to issues like the economy, where the poll shows that voters give Kerry the edge. Although the poll shows that most voters believe that Bush exaggerated intelligence reports to build support for going into Iraq, they still give Bush the advantage when it comes to managing the war in Iraq and fighting terrorism. Democrats have accused Bush of bungling the war in Iraq, and only 46 percent of voters approve of Bush's handling of the war. But 54 percent believe that he would do a better job of waging that war than Kerry. More than half also believe that Bush would be more effective in the fight against terrorism. The poll also shows that although a majority of voters believe that the United States is moving ''in the wrong direction'' under Bush, the number has declined since March, underscoring Kerry's inability to exploit those worries or market himself as a viable alternative to Bush. KERRY'S MOMENTUM ''John Kerry has lost the momentum he developed in the spring, and that's what's allowed Bush to move slightly ahead,'' pollster Schroth said. Still, the war remains tricky for Bush, who has staked his presidency on it. Although a majority believe that invading Iraq has ''contributed to the long-term security'' of the United States, 50 percent believe that it wasn't worth fighting. That number could make it difficult for Bush to broaden his appeal in a state that remains highly polarized. And Bush's job approval rating hovers in the 40s -- a sign of vulnerability, Schroth said. ''If those numbers don't change, we're going to be tracking in a narrow range all the way to Nov. 2,'' Schroth said. The survey reveals that Florida is nearly evenly divided, with just 4 percent undecided, suggesting that the race in the state will come down to Iraq, the mood of independent voters, and the ability of each side to energize its base of voters. ''It will probably turn out to be a turnout game if there is a shift in voter attitude,'' Schroth said. Bush makes a strong showing among his core base voters. In March, just 77 percent of Republicans said they planned to vote for the president. That number is now 85 percent, compared with 81 percent of Democrats who plan to vote for Kerry. Bush also has a one-point lead among independents, who back him 44 percent to Kerry's 43 percent. A QUESTION OF VALUES Bush, who has sought to campaign not as a polarizing figure but as a wartime president, benefits from more voters who believe that he ``represents my values.'' ''I tend to be more conservative and lean toward Republicans, and I really like what George Bush has done since Sept. 11,'' said Weston resident Tina Leonardo, who responded to the poll questions. ``I do think he's a strong leader.'' In a troubling sign for Democrats, consumer advocate Ralph Nader continues to pull enough support -- 2 percent -- to swing a close election, as Democrats believe he did in 2000. The poll suggests that adding Southerner Sen. John Edwards to the Democratic ticket has yet to provide a particular benefit, as some strategists had suggested. And although Democrats have suggested that Bush's controversial crackdown on Cuba could swing some votes their way, the poll shows Bush with the solid backing of Florida's influential Hispanic voting bloc. HISPANIC VOTERS Among Hispanics, Bush leads Kerry by 58 percent to 34 percent, a slide of six points for Kerry from March. The numbers include not only typically Republican-leaning Cuban Americans, but also traditionally Democratic non-Cubans, who backed Al Gore in 2000. But voters say they trust Kerry more when it comes to domestic issues such as protecting the environment, preventing American jobs from going overseas, and reducing taxes on the middle class. ''The president's cutting taxes for the wealthy when Congress is spending all this money,'' said Betty Griffith of West Palm Beach, a poll respondent who is leaning toward Kerry. ``I'm afraid he's just too cavalier.'' And despite the Republicans' effort to woo seniors by pushing legislation to curb the rising cost of prescription drugs, voters overwhelmingly trust Kerry more than Bush to protect Medicare and Social Security, as well as to reduce the prices of prescription drugs. Voters are also at odds with Bush when it comes to support for federal funding for stem-cell research, and they oppose Bush's proposal to change the U.S. Constitution to prevent gay couples from marrying.
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